主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7): 970-973.

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基于石油化工火灾情景推演软件的态势预测

胡人元1，王晖晖2，夏登友3   

  1. （1.重庆市万州区消防救援支队，重庆 404000；2.邵阳市消防救援支队，湖南 邵阳422000；3.中国人民警察大学 救援指挥学院，河北 廊坊065000）
  • 出版日期:2022-07-15 发布日期:2022-07-15
  • 作者简介:作者简介：胡人元(1994-)，男，四川仪陇人，重庆市万州区消防救援支队江南消防救援站副站长，硕士，主要从事化工事故处置指挥决策方面的研究，重庆市万州区江南新区江南消防站，404000。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（52174224）

Situation prediction based on petrochemical fire scenario deduction software

HU Ren-yuan1, WANG Hui-hui2, XIA Deng-you3   

  1. （1. Chongqing Wanzhou Fire and Rescue Division，Chongqing 404000, China; 2. Shaoyang Fire and Rescue Division, Hunan Shaoyang 422000, China; 3. Rescue Command College, China People's Police University, Hebei Langfang 065000， China）
  • Online:2022-07-15 Published:2022-07-15

摘要： 为客观预测多对象并存下的石油化工火灾的情景演变态势，利用开发的石油化工火灾情景推演软件实现了情景元的客观概率推演，立足于化工火灾处置编成和情景演变路径将态势划分为控制、僵持和失控3个等级，采取概率分配组合方法，实现了对于石油化工火灾整体态势的预测。最后以某液化石油气储罐区火灾为例，分析得出了承灾体的数量及状态与石化火灾整体态势之间的联系。

关键词: 关键词：消防救援, 石油化工火灾, 情景推演, 态势预测

Abstract: Abstract: In order to objectively predict the evolution trend of petrochemical fire scenarios under the coexistence of multiple objects, the developed petrochemical fire scenario deduction software is used to realize the objective probability deduction of scenario elements. Based on the petrochemical fire disposal organization and scenario evolution path, the trend is divided into three levels of control, stalemate and out-of-control. The probability distribution combination method is adopted to realize the prediction of the overall situation of petrochemical fires. Finally, taking a liquefied petroleum gas storage tank fire as an example, the relationship between the number and state of disaster-bearing bodies and the overall situation of petrochemical fires is obtained.

Key words: Key words: fire rescue, petrochemical fire, scenario deduction, situation prediction