主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (11): 1591-1593.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

基于因子分析法的火灾形势分析

杨 阳，刘源昊，贾 迪   

  1. （北京市密云区消防救援支队，北京 101500）
  • 出版日期:2022-11-15 发布日期:2022-11-15
  • 作者简介:杨 阳（1990- ），男，山西临汾人，北京市密云区消防救援支队指挥中心副主任，专业技术十级，硕士，主要从事消防灭火救援、防火监督等工作，北京市密云区水源东路331号，101500。

Fire situation analysis based on factor analysis

Yang Yang, Liu Yuanhao, Jia Di   

  1. (Beijing Miyun District Fire and Rescue Division, Beijing 101500, China)
  • Online:2022-11-15 Published:2022-11-15

摘要： 以2019年31个省、自治区、直辖市的火灾统计数据为例，选取了火灾起数、死亡人数、受伤人数、直接经济损失、烧毁面积、受灾户数6项统计指标，利用因子分析方法对指标进行分析,提取得到2个能够反映火灾形势的公共因子。基于因子分析的结果对火灾发生概率、火灾后果进行探讨，并提出消防监督管理的建议。

关键词: 火灾统计, 因子分析, 火灾发生概率, 火灾后果

Abstract: Taking the fire statistics of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in 2019 as an example, six statistical indicators were selected, including the number of fires, the number of deaths, the number of injured, direct economic losses, burned area and the number of affected households. Factor analysis was used to analyze the indicators, and two public factors that can reflect the fire situation were obtained. Based on the results of factor analysis, the probability of fire occurrence and the consequences of fire are discussed, and suggestions for fire supervision and management are put forward.

Key words: fire statistics, factor analysis, probability of fire occurrence, fire consequence