主管:中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办:应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU

消防科学与技术 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3): 416-421.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

火灾对我国家庭财产保险需求影响的实证研究

唐声强1,黄晓家1,2,谢水波1,王 燚1   

  1. (1.南华大学 土木工程学院,湖南 衡阳 421001;2.中国中元国际工程有限公司,北京 100089)
  • 出版日期:2023-03-15 发布日期:2023-03-15
  • 作者简介:唐声强(1999- ),男,湖南衡阳人,南华大学土木工程学院硕士研究生,主要从事消防及火灾保险研究,湖南省衡阳市常胜西路28号,421001。

An empirical study on the impact of fire on the demand of family property insurance in China

Tang Shengqiang1, Huang Xiaojia1,2, Xie Shuibo1, Wang Yi1   

  1. (1. Civil Engineering College, University of South China, Hu'nan Hengyang 421001, China; 2. China Zhongyuan International Engineering Co.,Ltd., Beijing 100089, China)
  • Online:2023-03-15 Published:2023-03-15

摘要: 家庭财产保险是我国财产保险的“老三险”之一,随着我国经济社会的发展,家庭财富得到巨大的提升,但家财险的发展一直受到抑制,没有起到防灾减灾的作用。通过最初的火灾保险理念和保险学理论以及计量经济学方法来分析家财险需求的影响因子,通过多元线性回归模型及稳健性检验,发现采用时间个体双固定模型来解释我国家财险需求更为合适,其中火灾直接经济损失、居民人均可支配收入和常住人口对家财险需求产生显著正向影响,商业车险占比对家财险需求产生显著负向影响,保险价格、地区生产总值和人均住房面积对家财险需求影响不显著。其中,火灾直接经济损失对保费收入的产出弹性为0.13。

关键词: 火灾保险, 家财险, 影响因子, 火灾直接经济损失

Abstract: Abstract: Family property insurance is one of the "old three risks" of China's property insurance. Although the family wealth has been greatly improved with the development of China's economy and society, the development of family property insurance has been suppressed and has not played a role in disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper analyzes the influence factors of property insurance demand through the initial fire insurance concept, insurance theory and econometric method. Through the multiple linear regression model and robustness test, it is found that it is more appropriate to use the time individual double fixed model to explain the property insurance demand of China, in which the direct economic loss of fire, the per capita disposable income of residents and the resident population have a significant positive impact on the property insurance demand. The proportion of commercial automobile insurance has a significant negative impact on the demand for home property insurance, while the insurance price, GDP and per capita housing area have no significant impact on the demand for home property insurance. Among them, the output elasticity of direct economic loss of fire to premium income is 0.13.

Key words: key words: fire insurance, home property insurance, influencing factors, direct economic loss caused by fire