关键词: 复杂网络, 灾害链, 风险评估, DEMATEL法, 火灾, 老年人照料设施

Abstract: In order to study the impact of disaster factors and the nature of disaster carriers on fire risk prevention and control in elderly care facilities, disaster chain and complex network theory were applied to evaluate the risk degree of edges in the disaster chain network constructed based on complex networks and determine that the DEMATEL method can make the analysis results of complex networks more accurate. Statistical analysis of fires in elderly care facilities both domestically and internationally was conducted to identify the disaster causing factors in such accidents. A complex system disaster chain model was constructed using inductive analysis and the theory of chain transmission of disasters. The risk assessment of the constructed disaster network was conducted on the edges. Finally, the DEMATEL method was used to correct the errors in the risk assessment of disaster networks caused by factors such as different regions and times, improving the accuracy of disaster network risk assessment results. The study obtained the risk level of fire disasters in elderly care facilities, providing a basis for fire prevention and control in elderly care facilities, while also providing a basis for correcting complex network analysis results.

Key words: complex networks, disaster chain, risk assessment, DEMATEL method, fire, care facilities for the elderly