主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2025, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (8): 1029-1035.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑人员疏散的化工厂火球热辐射危害定量评价

王继贇1,2,3, 潘传鱼4, 李耀强1,2,3, 罗昊1,2,3, 刘晅亚1,2,3   

  1. （1.应急管理部天津消防研究所，天津 300381； 2.工业与公共建筑火灾防控技术应急管理部重点实验室，天津 300381； 3.天津市消防安全技术重点实验室，天津 300381； 4.中国工程物理研究院流体物理研究所，四川 绵阳 621022）
  • 收稿日期:2024-08-13 修回日期:2024-11-28 出版日期:2025-08-15 发布日期:2025-08-15
  • 作者简介:王继贇，应急管理部天津消防研究所助理研究员，博士，主要从事液体燃料储罐泄漏火灾风险评价研究，天津市南开区卫津南路110号，300381。
  • 基金资助:
    应急管理部天津消防研究所青年科技人才创新基金（2024SJCXJJ02）；天津市科技计划项目（21JCZDJC00810）

Quantitative assessment of the thermal radiation hazard of fireball in a chemical plant considering occupant evacuation

Wang Jiyun1,2,3, Pan Chuanyu4, Li Yaoqiang1,2,3, Luo Hao1,2,3, Liu Xuanya1,2,3   

  1. (1. Tianjin Fire Science and Technology Research Institute of MEM, Tianjin 300381, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Fire Protection Technology for Industry and Public Building, Ministry of Emergency Management, Tianjin 300381, China; 3. Tianjin Key Laboratory of Fire Safety Technology, Tianjin 300381, China; 4. Institute of Fluid Physics, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang Sichuan 621022, China)
  • Received:2024-08-13 Revised:2024-11-28 Online:2025-08-15 Published:2025-08-15

摘要： 为定量评价化工厂火球事故的热辐射危害，利用FDS软件模拟火球演化过程，利用Pathfinder软件模拟人员疏散；基于FDS和Pathfinder输出的数据，编写数据查询算法获取人员疏散过程的热辐射剂量，从而依据剂量-反应模型计算伤亡概率，确定伤亡人数。研究结果表明：随着单个火球燃料质量由5 056 kg增加至16 432 kg，火球持续时间和最大直径分别由6.9 s增加至11.3 s、40 m增加至98 m，热辐射影响范围显著增加；疏散人员分布随时间而非线性变化，导致伤亡人员数量随火球形成时间而非线性变化。多米诺效应导致多个火球产生，人员死亡数由不足3人升至超过10人，致使事故等级由一般事故升级为重大事故。研究结果可为火球及其他火灾的事故定量评价提供理论支撑。

关键词: 化工厂火球, 热辐射危害, 定量评价, 人员疏散, 伤亡概率

Abstract: In order to quantitatively evaluate the thermal radiation hazard caused by a fireball in a chemical plant, FDS software was used to simulate the evolution of the fireball, and Pathfinder software was used to simulate the occupant evacuation. On the basis of data output by FDS and Pathfinder, the data query algorithm was written to acquire the thermal radiation dose of each evacuee, so as to calculate the casualty probability according to the dose-response model, and to determine the number of casualties. The results showed that as the fuel mass of single fireball increased from 5 056 kg to 16 432 kg, the duration and maximum diameter of the fireball increased from 6.9 s to 11.3 s and 40 m to 98 m, respectively, which significantly expanded the influence area of thermal radiation. The distribution of evacuees varied nonlinearly over time, resulting in the number of casualties varying nonlinearly with the moment of the fireball formation. The domino effect led to multiple fireballs, and the number of fatalities increased from less than 3 to more than 10, which escalated the accident level from a general accident to a major accident. The results provided theoretical support for the quantitative assessment of accidents consequences of fireballs and other fires.

Key words: fireball in a chemical plant, thermal radiation hazard, quantitative assessment, occupant evacuation, casualty probability