主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2025, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (8): 1056-1061.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

石油储罐区火灾事故的多层网络建模与风险分析

夏云龙1, 夏登友2,3, 陈昶霖1, 夏正霖4   

  1. （1.中国人民警察大学 研究生院，河北 廊坊 065000； 2.中国人民警察大学 救援指挥学院，河北 廊坊 065000； 3.河北省应急救援技术重点实验室，河北 廊坊065000； 4.重庆市潼南区消防救援支队，重庆 402660）
  • 收稿日期:2025-03-19 修回日期:2025-05-23 出版日期:2025-08-15 发布日期:2025-08-15
  • 作者简介:夏云龙，中国人民警察大学硕士研究生，主要从事灭火救援、应急决策方面的研究，河北省廊坊市安次区西昌路220号，065000。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（52174224）

Multi-layer networks model and risk analysis of oil tank area fire accidents

Xia Yunlong1, Xia Dengyou2,3, Chen Changlin1, Xia Zhenglin4   

  1. (1. Graduate School, China People's Police University, Langfang Hebei 065000, China; 2. School of Rescue and Command, China People's Police University, Langfang Hebei 065000, China; 3. Hebei Key Laboratory of Emergency Rescue Technology, Langfang Hebei 065000, China; 4. Chongqing Tongnan Fire and Rescue Division, Chongqing 402660, China)
  • Received:2025-03-19 Revised:2025-05-23 Online:2025-08-15 Published:2025-08-15

摘要： 为解决石油储罐区火场中一线指挥员无法准确感知火灾风险的问题，本文基于多层网络理论，提出了一种石油储罐区火灾事故风险传播的多层网络模型。首先，通过分析石油储罐的关键事故情景，构建了不同类型的储罐事故传播单层网络，并在此基础上构建石油储罐区事故风险传播的多层网络模型；随后，利用节点的度中心性、介数中心性和紧密中心性等指标，对各储罐事故情景节点的重要性进行定量评估，以衡量不同储罐事故情景的风险水平；最后，以2015年福建漳州PX项目爆炸事故为例，分析了储罐火灾发展过程，识别出了关键事故情景节点。研究结果表明：相较于传统的单层网络，多层网络能够更清晰有效地识别出具有关键影响力的情景节点，为应急响应中的优先处置提供支撑。

关键词: 石油储罐火灾, 风险分析, 应急救援, 多层网络, 情景演化

Abstract: In order to address the challenge that frontline commanders cannot accurately assess fire risks in oil tank area fire scenarios, this paper proposes a multi-layer network model for fire risk propagation in oil tank areas based on multi-layer network theory. First, by analyzing critical accident scenarios of oil tanks, we constructed single-layer networks of accident propagation for different types of tank, and subsequently developed a multi-layer network model for risk propagation in oil tank area accidents. Subsequently, we quantitatively evaluated the importance of scenario nodes in tank accidents using node index including degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality, thereby measuring risk levels of different tank accident scenarios. Finally, through case analysis of the 2015 Zhangzhou PX project explosion in Fujian Province, we examined the fire development process and identified critical accident scenario nodes. The study demonstrates that, compared to traditional single-layer networks, the multilayer network can more clearly and effectively identify critical scenario nodes with significant influence, thereby providing valuable support for priority disposal in emergency response.

Key words: oil tank fire, risk analysis, emergency rescue, multi-layer network, scenario evolution