主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2026, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (5): 1-8.

• •    下一篇

基于LDA-DEMATEL-ISM的燃气泄漏事故致因因素研究

陈文涛1,2, 高  幸1, 孙超2, 王文和3, 杨志全1, 刘超林2   

  1. （1.昆明理工大学 公共安全与应急管理学院，云南 昆明 650031； 2.应急管理部信息研究院，北京 100029； 3.重庆科技大学 安全科学与工程学院，重庆 401331）
  • 收稿日期:2025-04-25 修回日期:2025-11-11 出版日期:2026-05-15 发布日期:2026-05-15
  • 作者简介:陈文涛，应急管理部信息研究院信息资源所，副研究员，主要从事安全科学与工程学科建设、城市安全风险评估、应急工程技术及数据挖掘分析等研究，北京市朝阳区芍药居35号文学馆路中煤信息大厦205，100029。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目（2024YFC3017000）

Research on causal factors of gas leakage accidents based on LDA-DEMATEL-ISM

Chen Wentao1,2, Gao Xing1, Sun Chao2, Wang Wenhe3, Yang Zhiquan1, Liu Chaolin2   

  1. (1. School of Public Safety and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming Yunnan 650031, China; 2. Information Research Institute of the Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing 100029, China; 3. School of Safety Science and Engineering, Chongqing University of Science and Technology, Chongqing 401331, China)
  • Received:2025-04-25 Revised:2025-11-11 Online:2026-05-15 Published:2026-05-15

摘要： 为探究燃气泄漏事故致因因素间的内在作用关系，识别关键致因及根源致因因素，收集148份燃气泄漏事故调查报告作为文本数据，运用潜在狄利克雷分布（Latent Dirichlet Allocation, LDA）模型进行主题挖掘，结合文献分析识别归纳18项事故致因因素，采用集成决策实验室分析（Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory，DEMATEL）与解释结构模型（Interpretive Structural Modeling，ISM）方法，绘制因素原因-结果图，构建多级递阶层次结构模型，以确定各因素的因果属性及其在系统中的作用地位，明确因素间的层次关系与传导路径。结果表明，燃气泄漏事故致因因素呈现出5级递阶结构，其中安全监管不到位与安全教育培训落实不足是根源致因，而违规操作与附属设备设施失效等是事故最直接的表层致因；识别出的11条从根源至表层的关键事故致因链，揭示了燃气泄漏事故致因间的多级传导路径，为事故防控提供了明确的方向。

关键词: 燃气泄漏事故, 致因因素, LDA模型, DEMATEL-ISM方法, 风险分析

Abstract: To explore the intrinsic relationships among the contributing factors of gas leakage accidents and identify the key and root causes, this study collected 148 gas leakage accident investigation reports as textual data. The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model was applied for topic mining, and 18 accident causative factors were identified and summarized through literature analysis. An integrated approach combining the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) was adopted to plot cause-and-result diagrams of the factors and construct a multi-level hierarchical structure model. This allowed for determining the causal attributes of each factor and their roles within the system, as well as clarifying the hierarchical relationships and transmission paths among the factors. The results show that the causal factors of gas leakage accidents exhibit a five-level hierarchical structure. Among them, inadequate safety supervision and insufficient implementation of safety education and training are identified as root causes, while violations of operating procedures and failures of auxiliary equipment and facilities are the most direct surface-level causes. A total of 11 key causal chains from root causes to surface-level factors were identified, revealing the multi-level transmission paths among the causes of gas leakage accidents and providing clear directions for accident prevention and control.

Key words: gas leakage accident, causative factors, LDA model, DEMATEL-ISM method, risk analysis