主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (8): 1054-1058.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

城市燃气管网泄漏致灾演化机理研究

王春雪   

  1. 北京航空航天大学安全保卫部，北京100191
  • 出版日期:2020-08-15 发布日期:2020-08-15
  • 作者简介:王春雪（1991-），女，北京航空航天大学安全保卫部助理研究员，博士，主要从事安全管理、风险管理研究，北京市海淀区学院路37 号，100191。
  • 基金资助:
    北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9162001)

Study on the evolution mechanism of urban gas networks leakage disasters

WANG Chun-xue   

  1. Security Department, Beihang University, Beijing 100191,China

  • Online:2020-08-15 Published:2020-08-15

摘要： 为了探究城市燃气管网泄漏致灾演化机理，构建泄漏致灾演化贝叶斯网络模型。通过管网泄漏灾害案例统计，分析致灾类型及灾害损害对象，建立管网泄漏致灾演化链。辨识演化过程中的灾害变量因素及其影响作用，构建灾害演化网络结构，分析致灾演化过程中的关键节点。结果表明，管网泄漏致灾类型主要为爆炸、火灾、中毒窒息等，且主要损害对象为居民生命、建筑物、其他城市生命线等；致灾演化过程为各类灾害环境因素、致灾因素及受灾对象因素间共同作用的结果；泄漏量、火灾、爆炸、供电设施受损等节点为管网泄漏致灾演化关键节点。

关键词: 燃气管网, 泄漏, 演化链, 演化机理, 关键节点

Abstract: In order to study the evolution mechanism of urban gas networks leakage disasters, a Bayesian network model of leakage disasters evolution was built. Types of disasters and damage targets were analyzed by counting the disasters, and the evolution chain of gas networks leakage disasters was established. Disaster factors during the evolution and their influence were identified,and the key nodes of the chain were analyzed though the evolution network structure. The results show that the gas networks leakage disasters are explosion, fire, suffocation, etc. And the main damage targets are residents' lives, buildings, other city lifelines, etc.The disaster evolution is the result of the effects of disaster environment factors, disaster - causing factors and disaster - affected factors. Leakage, fire disaster, explosion disaster, power supply facilities damage are the key nodes of the evolution chain of the urban gas networks leakage disasters.

Key words: urban gas networks, leakage disasters, evolution chain;evolution mechanism, key nodes