主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 1784-1787.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

通用航空森林火灾救灾决策模型研究

骆 晨，潘卫军，朱新平，王 玄   

  1. （中国民用航空飞行学院 空中交通管理学院，四川 广汉 618307）
  • 出版日期:2021-12-15 发布日期:2021-12-15
  • 作者简介:骆 晨(1989-)，男，江西南昌人，中国民用航空飞行学院空中交通管理学院讲师，博士，主要从事民航安全、航班恢复计划优化的研究，四川省广汉市南昌路四段46号，618307。
  • 基金资助:
    中央引导地方科技发展专项(2020ZYD094)；四川省科技厅项目（2021YFS0319）；四川省社科规划项目（SC21C088）

Research on the general aviation forest fire disaster relief decision model

LUO Chen, PAN Wei-jun, ZHU Xin-ping, WANG Xuan   

  1. （College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Sichuan Guanghan 618307，China）
  • Online:2021-12-15 Published:2021-12-15

摘要： 针对森林火灾救灾前需对通用航空派遣进行决策，且评估过程中掺杂决策人员个人主观经验及客观数据分析的特点，建立双隶属度函数刻画主、客观交织决策过程。借鉴证据理论中的证据冲突思想，构造犹豫隶属度函数投影法，刻画并解决实际决策过程中犹豫正交化的问题。通过建立对数增长型权重模型，描绘火场传递信息的时序特点，并对火场信息进行动态赋权。通过算例证明算法的有效性。

关键词: 安全管理工程, 森林火灾, 通用航空, 救灾决策

Abstract: In view of the need to make decision on general aviation dispatch before forest fire disaster relief, and the characteristics that personal subjective experience of decision-makers and objective observation data of fire site are mixed in the decision evaluation process, the main and objective interwoven action and decision-making process were described by establishing a double membership function. The idea of evidence conflict in the evidence theory was used for reference. The hesitant affiliation function projection method was constructed to carve and solve the problem of hesitant orthogonalization in the actual decision-making process. The log-growth weight model was established to describe the timing characteristics of the information transfer in the forest fire, and the dynamic weight of the information was given accordingly. Finally, an example was given to prove the validity of the algorithm.

Key words: safety management engineering, forest fires, general aviation, disaster relief decisions