主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (7): 1028-1033.

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基于SD的天然气管道人员密集型高后果区小孔泄漏事故仿真

吴东容1，许铎2，朱建平1，蒋毅1，杨川1，陈利琼2   

  1. 1. 国家管网集团西南管道有限责任公司，四川成都610000；2. 西南石油大学石油与天然气工程学院，四川成都610500
  • 出版日期:2021-07-15 发布日期:2021-07-15
  • 作者简介:吴东容（1986-），女，国家管网集团西南管道有限责任公司工程师，主要从事油气管道完整性管理工作，四川省成都市金牛区迎宾大道6 号，610000。
  • 基金资助:
    国家管网集团西南管道有限责任公司科学研究与技术开发项目“山区油气管道高后果区识别与管控技术研究”(201906)

Simulation analysis of small hole leakage accident in high consequence area of natural gas pipeline based on system dynamics

WU Dong-rong1, XU Duo2, ZHU Jian-ping1, JIANG Yi1, YANG Chuan1, CHEN Li-qiong2   

  1. 1. PipeChina Southwest Pipeline Company, Sichuan Chengdu 610000, China; 2. School of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Sichuan Chengdu 610500, China
  • Online:2021-07-15 Published:2021-07-15

摘要： 基于天然气管道泄漏事故特征、天然气管道小孔泄漏速率模型及事故伤害模型，针对特定高后果区实际工况及人员分布特征建立系统动力学模型，研究在应急响应时间变化干预下事故后果的动态变化。建立了人员死亡系数计算模型并运用Vensim_PLE 软件对特定高后果区进行仿真分析，得出不同泄漏孔径下的泄漏速率、泄漏量随时间的变化趋势；不同演化事故的人员死亡人数及综合死亡人数的变化规律。通过应急响应时间参数的调节最终得出该高后果区小孔泄漏事故零死亡的最短应急时间，为高后果区安全管理提供科学的决策支撑。

关键词: 天然气管道, 系统动力学, 小孔泄漏, 事故演化

Abstract: Based on the characteristics of natural gas pipeline leakage accident, small hole leakage rate model and accident injury model of natural gas pipeline, a system dynamics model was established according to the actual working conditions and personnel distribution characteristics of specific high consequence area to study the dynamic analysis of accident consequences with the intervention of emergency response time change. Meanwhile, the calculation model of personnel death coefficient was established, and Vensim- PLE software was applied to carry out the simulation analysis for the specific high consequence area, and obtained the leakage rate, leakage volume and its change trend with time under different leakage aperture, as well as the change rule of personnel death toll and comprehensive death toll of different evolution accidents with occurrence time. Through the adjustment of the emergency response time parameters, the shortest emergency time to achieve zero death for the small hole leakage accident in the high consequence area was finally obtained, which provided scientific decision support for the safety management in the high consequence area.

Key words: natural gas pipeline, system dynamics, small hole leakage, accident evolution