主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 216-220.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

基于综合赋权和未确知测度的火灾风险评价

常绪华1，李景山2，张 芸1，罗乾坤1   

  1. （1.河南工程学院 资源与安全工程学院,河南 郑州 451191； 2.铁道警察学院 治安学系，河南 郑州 450053）
  • 出版日期:2022-02-15 发布日期:2022-02-15
  • 作者简介:常绪华(1983-)，男，河南焦作人，河南工程学院资源与安全工程学院讲师，博士，主要从事火灾防治理论与技术方面的研究，河南省郑州市新郑龙湖镇祥和路1号，451191。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(51404089); 河南省国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202011517005)

Fire risk evaluation based on comprehensive weighting and uncertainty measurement

CHANG Xu-hua1, Li Jing-shan2,ZHANG Yun1, LUO Qian-kun1   

  1. (1. School of Resource and Safety Engineering, Henan Institute of Engineering, Henan Zhengzhou 451191, China; 2. Railway Police College, Department of Public Security, Henan Zhengzhou 450053, China)
  • Online:2022-02-15 Published:2022-02-15

摘要： 为准确评估商场火灾风险，建立了基于综合赋权法的未确知测度评价模型，该模型利用未确知测度建立单指标测度评价矩阵，基于IIAHP、熵、离差平方和最大化计算评价指标的综合权重，从而得到评价对象的综合测度评价向量，最终判定风险等级和排序。利用建立的模型对商场火灾风险进行评价，选取了16个影响商场火灾风险的评价指标，建立了评价指标的未确知测度函数，根据评价指标现场赋值计算得到了4个商场的火灾风险等级和排序，分析显示，风险等级和排序与商场安全情况吻合，评价结果具有应用价值。

关键词: 综合赋权, 未确知测度, 火灾风险, 改进区间层次分析法, 熵

Abstract: To get an accurate evaluation of fire risk in malls, uncertainty measurement evaluation model was built based on comprehensive weighting method. In this model, single index measure evaluation matrix was built by uncertainty measurement. Comprehensive weight of evaluation indexes was calculated based on IIAHP, entropy and sum of deviation square maximizing. Comprehensive measure evaluation vectors of evaluation objects were obtained by single index measure evaluation matrix and comprehensive weight of evaluation indexes. Risk rating and sequencing were judged by comprehensive measure evaluation vectors. Fire risk of malls was evaluated by the established model. 16 evaluation indexes of affecting malls fire risk were selected and uncertainty measure functions of evaluation indexes were built. Fire risk rating and sequencing of 4 malls were obtained by field datum of evaluation indexes. Analysis showed that risk rating and sequencing are consistent with the safety situation of malls. The evaluation results have application value.

Key words: comprehensive weighting, uncertainty measurement, fire risk, improve interval analytic hierarchy process method, entropy