主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (9): 1242-1246.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

变权-突变级数在矿井火灾危险性评估中的应用

薛峰1,2,3，李希建1,2,3，徐恩宇1,2,3，蔡俊杰1,2,3   

  1. （1.贵州大学矿业学院，贵州贵阳 550025；2.复杂地质矿山开采安全技术工程中心，贵州贵阳 550025；3.贵州大学瓦斯灾害防治与煤层气开发研究所，贵州贵阳 550025）
  • 出版日期:2022-09-15 发布日期:2022-09-15
  • 作者简介:作者简介：薛峰（1997- ），男，四川内江人，贵州大学矿业学院硕士研究生，主要从事矿山灾害防治研究，贵州省贵阳市花溪区，550025。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目（52164015，51874107）；贵州省科技计划资助项目（黔科合平台人才[2018]5781 号，黔科合支撑[2022]一般231）

Application of variable weight-mutation seriesin mine fire risk analysis

Xue Feng1,2,3, Li Xijian1,2,3,Xu Enyu1,2,3, Cai Junjie1,2,3   

  1. (1. Mining College，Guizhou University，Guizhou Guiyang 550025, China; 2. Engineering Center for Safe Mining Technology Under Complex Gelogic Condition, Guizhou Guiyang 550025, China; 3. Institute of Gas Disaster Prevention and Coalbed Methane Development, Guizhou University, Guizhou Guiyang 550025, China)
  • Online:2022-09-15 Published:2022-09-15

摘要： 为了更加全面地评估矿井火灾现场风险，提出AHP法、熵权法、变权理论和突变级数法相结合的矿井火灾风险综合评估方法。该评估方法的主要思路是耦合主客观因素的AHP法与熵权赋权方法获取指标常权权重值，选取惩罚-激励型变权函数求解变权权重值，再结合引入皮尔逊相关系数改进后的突变级数法判定矿井火灾风险等级。在现有评价矿井火灾危险性实例的基础上，从人、机、管理和环境4个方面建立矿井火灾风险评估体系；以贵州省青龙煤矿11613工作面采空区为例，选取16个主要影响因素进行火灾风险评估，评估结果为：总突变级数值0.704 8，火灾风险为一般危险，并从人、机、环境、管理4个因素分别提出了一系列措施，以此降低矿井火灾危险性。

关键词: 矿井火灾, 惩罚-激励变权法, 突变理论, 安全评价

Abstract: In order to comprehensively evaluate the risk of mine fire, a comprehensive evaluation method of mine fire risk is proposed by combining AHP method, entropy weight method, variable weight theory and catastrophe progression method. The main idea of this evaluation method is to couple the subjective and objective factors of the AHP method and the entropy weighting method to obtain the constant weight value of the index, select the penalty-incentive variable weight function to solve the variable weight value, and then combine the Pearson correlation coefficient to improve the subsequent mutation series method to determine the mine fire risk level. On the basis of the existing evaluation examples of mine fire risk, the mine fire risk assessment system is established from four aspects of human, machine, management and environment. Taking the goaf of 11613 working face in Qinglong Coal Mine of Guizhou province as an example, 16 main influencing factors were selected for fire risk assessment. The assessment results were as follows: the total catastrophe level value was 0.704 8, and the fire risk was general risk. A series of measures were proposed from the four factors of human, machine, environment and management to reduce the risk of mine fire.

Key words: mine fire, penalty-incentive variable weight method;mutation theory, safety evaluation