主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 829-834.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

林区架空配电线路诱发森林火灾风险评估

戚振彪1,2, 郭晓雪3, 寿宇铭3, 张佳庆1, 章彬彬1   

  1. （1. 国网安徽省电力有限公司 电力科学研究院电力火灾与安全防护安徽省重点实验室（国家电网公司输变电设施火灾防护实验室），安徽 合肥 230601；2. 国网安徽省电力有限公司，安徽 合肥 230061；3. 中国科学技术大学 火灾科学国家重点实验室，安徽 合肥 230022）
  • 出版日期:2023-06-15 发布日期:2023-06-15
  • 作者简介:作者简介：戚振彪(1983- )，安徽淮北人，国网安徽省电力有限公司，国网安徽电科院电力火灾与安全防护安徽省重点实验室（国网输变电设施火灾防护实验室）特聘专家，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事配电网运维检修及工程管理、供配电技术、新能源发电研究，安徽省合肥市经济技术开发区紫云路299号，230601。

Risk assessment of fire induced by overhead distribution lines across forest areas

Qi Zhenbiao1,2, Guo Xiaoxue3, Shou Yuming3, Zhang Jiaqing1, Zhang Binbin1   

  1. (1. Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Electric Fire and Safety Protection (State Grid Laboratory of Fire Protection for Transmission and Distribution Facilities), State Grid Anhui Electric Power Research Institute, Anhui Hefei 230601, China; 2. State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co. Ltd., Anhui Hefei 230061, China; 3. State Key of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology, Anhui Hefei 230022, China)
  • Online:2023-06-15 Published:2023-06-15

摘要： 林区架空配电线路存在诱发森林火灾的隐患，且火灾后果严重，为此提出了林区10 kV架空配电线路诱发森林火灾风险评估方法。该方法首先建立林区10 kV架空配电线路诱发森林火灾风险评估指标体系并确定指标权重；基于重视低得分评估单元影响的惩罚性变权确定火灾发生可能性指标得分系数；火灾后果严重性采用模糊综合评价法得到后果等级的隶属度；最后通过火灾风险图获得评估结果。以10 kV棠溪113线为例开展评估，该线路火灾发生可能性较高，得分为69.805分；火灾后果等级为轻微、一般、中等、严重和灾难性的隶属度分别是65.8%、8.1%、12.3%、2%和11.8%；绘制火灾风险图，该线路的低、中、高风险隶属度分别为65.8%、22.4%和11.8%。对未满分指标进行关键性分析确定有效整改措施，包括保证配电线路与树障的垂直和水平距离达标、将电线电缆更换成绝缘导线等。

关键词: 风险评估, 森林火灾, 模糊综合评价法, 惩罚性变权

Abstract: Aiming at the potential safety hazards of wildland fire induced by overhead distribution lines in forest areas and the serious consequences of fire, a risk assessment method of wildland fire induced by 10 kV overhead distribution lines in forest areas is proposed. Firstly, the indicator system of wildland fire risk assessment caused by 10 kV overhead distribution lines is established and the indicator weights are determined. The score coefficient of fire occurrence probability indicator is determined based on the penalty variable weight which emphasizes the influence of low score assessment unit. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to obtain the membership degree of consequence grade. Finally, the risk assessment results are obtained by the fire risk map. Take the 10 kV Tangxi 113 line as an example, the fire occurrence probability of this line is higher, and the score is 69.805 points. Membership degree of the fire consequences as minor, general, medium, serious and catastrophic are 65.8%, 8.1%, 12.3%, 2% and 11.8%, respectively. The fire risk map is draw, and the membership degree of low, medium and high risk of the line are 65.8%, 22.4% and 11.8%, respectively. Effective rectification measures on the incomplete indicators are suggested, including ensuring that the vertical and horizontal distance between the distribution line and the tree barrier meets the standards, and replacing the wires and cables with insulated conductors.

Key words: risk assessment, wildland fire, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, penalty variable weight