主管:中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办:应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU

消防科学与技术 ›› 2026, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (4): 124-133.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑恐慌情绪的高铁站候车厅人员疏散行为研究

夏润铭1, 陈洪根1, 李婧1, 郭俊鹏2   

  1. (1.郑州航空工业管理学院,河南 郑州 450046; 2.上海彼栈数据技术有限责任公司,上海 201900)
  • 收稿日期:2025-02-24 修回日期:2025-11-02 出版日期:2026-04-15 发布日期:2026-04-15
  • 作者简介:夏润铭,郑州航空工业管理学院管理工程学院研究生,主要从事应急疏散系统仿真与决策方面的研究,河南省郑州市金水区文苑西路15号,450046。

Study on personnel evacuation behavior in high-speed railway station waiting halls considering panic emotion

Xia Runming1, Chen Honggen1, Li Jing1, Guo Junpeng2   

  1. (1. Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics, Zhengzhou Henan 450046, China; 2. Shanghai Bizhan Data Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201900, China)
  • Received:2025-02-24 Revised:2025-11-02 Online:2026-04-15 Published:2026-04-15

摘要: 针对恐慌情绪影响高铁站候车厅人群紧急疏散效率问题,重点基于SEIRS模型和OCEAN模型等理论与方法,研究构建了考虑恐慌情绪的候车厅人员疏散仿真模型,并进行了恐慌情绪传播影响因子的灵敏度分析和关键影响因子的最优设计仿真研究。灵敏度分析结果表明,设备引导对最终恐慌比具有非常显著的影响,而人群规模、引领者数量与个体感知范围3个因子对最终恐慌比具有显著的影响。最优设计仿真结果表明,在给定具体场景下,可进一步计算得到设备引导、人群规模、引领者数量与个体感知范围4个关键因子关于疏散效率的最优设计值。研究可为高铁站候车厅人员疏散行为优化提供理论和方法指导。

关键词: 人员疏散, 恐慌情绪传播, SEIRS模型, 疏散仿真, 候车厅

Abstract: Aiming at the problem that panic emotion impairs the efficiency of emergency evacuation of crowds in the waiting hall of high-speed railway stations, this study focuses on constructing a simulation model of personnel evacuation in waiting halls considering panic emotion based on theories and methods such as the SEIRS model and the OCEAN model. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors of panic emotion transmission and a simulation study on the optimal design of key influencing factors were carried out. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that equipment guidance has an extremely significant impact on the final panic ratio, while three factors (crowd size, the number of leaders and individual perception range) exert a significant influence on it. The results of the optimal design simulation indicate that under a given specific scenario, the optimal design values of four key factors (equipment guidance, crowd size, the number of leaders and individual perception range) related to evacuation efficiency can be further calculated. This study can provide theoretical and methodological guidance for the optimization of personnel evacuation behavior in the waiting halls of high-speed railway stations.

Key words: personnel evacuation, panic emotion transmission, SEIRS model, evacuation simulation, waiting hall