主管:中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办:应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU

Fire Science and Technology ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (10): 1380-1383.

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Research on estimation of fire probability in Shopping Mall based on Bayesian network

YANG Shi-quan1, HUANG Xiao-jia1,2,XIE Shui-bo1, WU Dong-li2, ZHAO Yao1,ZHANG Lei1,YAO Wei-jie1   

  1. 1. School of Civil Engineering Nanhua University, Hunan Hengyang 421001, China; 2. China Zhongyuan International Engineering Co., Ltd., Beijing 100089, China
  • Online:2020-10-15 Published:2020-10-15

Abstract: In view of the shopping malls- one of the crowded places, the characteristics of the fire in the mall, the analysis of the fire hazard factors, and the Bayesian network model of the mall fire were constructed. Use the National Bureau of Statistics and the "China Fire Yearbook" and "Foshan Statistical Yearbook" multi-year statistical data to calculate the initial probability of the node,and according to the Bayesian network transmission principle, calculate the probability of the occurrence of the mall fire. The results show that the Bayesian method can be effectively applied to fire analysis.

Key words: safety control, fire safety, Bayesian network, shopping mall fire