Study on spatial and temporal aggregation of forest fire in Yunnan province

Fire Science and Technology ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (10): 1425-1429.

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Study on spatial and temporal aggregation of forest fire in Yunnan province

WEI Jian-heng1, Li Zhi1, MA Ze-nan1,WANG He-chen-yang1, WANG Qiu-hua1,SHU Li-fu2, YANG Yu-yu1, GAO Zhong-liang1

1.Civil Engineering College, Southwest Forestry University,Yunnan Kunming 650224, China;2.Institute of Forest Ecological Environment and Protection, CAF, Beijing 100091, China

Online:2020-10-15 Published:2020-10-15
Contact: 高仲亮（1981-），西南林业大学土木工程学院讲师。

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the forest fire and meteorological data of Yunnan province from 1990 to 2017, the spatial aggregation analysis of forest fire was completed using SaTScan 9.4, the ARMA model was used to predict the frequency of forest fires from 2020 to 2025 in the region. The results showed that: At the time scale, the frequency of forest fires in Yunnan province decreased with the increase of year and was concentrated from January to May; On the spatial scale, forest fires mainly gather in central, northwest, and southwest regions in Yunnan province;Based on the ARMA model, there were more fires in Yunnan province from 2020 to 2025 than in 2017, but the number showed a decline trend.The study can help mastering the characteristics of the forest fire clustering, and provide theoretical support for the prevention and control work of the forest management department.

Key words: forest fire, aggregation, spatial and temporal distribution;SaTScan, ARMA model

WEI Jian-heng, Li Zhi, MA Ze-nan, WANG He-chen-yang, WANG Qiu-hua, SHU Li-fu, YANG Yu-yu, GAO Zhong-liang. Study on spatial and temporal aggregation of forest fire in Yunnan province[J]. Fire Science and Technology, 2020, 39(10): 1425-1429.

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Study on spatial and temporal aggregation of forest fire in Yunnan province

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