Abstract: A grey prediction GM( 1,1) model is established based on grey system theory, and the traffic volume of a existing subway station in a city which has a fast development and high growth rate of population is predicted. The result shows that, the maximum cross- section traffic volume during peak hours of subway station in the city which has a rapid growth of urban population will reach its long- term design stage forecast peak hour traffic volume ahead of schedule about 14 years, and will exceed 18.58% of its long- term design stage forecast peak hours traffic volume 10 years after it was put into service. Then the evacuation capacity of subway station under different traffic volume intensity is simulated, the result indicates that when the subway traffic volume is bigger than 10.88% of its maximum design traffic volume, the time for all personnel to evacuate to safety zone will exceed 6 minutes, which means the evacuation capacity of the station will no longer meet the requirements of the current specifications.

Key words: urban rail transit, GM(1,1) model, traffic volume prediction of subway, evacuation simulation, quantitative risk assessment, population growth