主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 855-859.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

基于CBR的客舱突发事件应急决策模型研究

张青松1,2, 魏祥宇2, 吴煜2, 常畅2   

  1. （1. 中国民航大学 民航热灾害防控与应急重点实验室，天津 300300；2. 中国民航大学 安全科学与工程学院，天津 300300）
  • 出版日期:2023-06-15 发布日期:2023-06-15
  • 作者简介:张青松（1977- ），男，河北晋州人，中国民航大学民航热灾害防控与应急重点实验室教授，博士，主要从事航空事故应急、飞机防火与灭火、危险品运输安全等方面的研究，天津市东丽区津北公路2898号，300300。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFC080201601）

Research on emergency decision method of cabin emergency based on CBR

Zhang Qingsong1,2, Wei Xiangyu2, Wu Yu2, Chang Chang2

  

  1. (1. Key Laboratory of Civil Aviation Thermal Disaster Prevention and Emergency, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China;2. School of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China)

  • Online:2023-06-15 Published:2023-06-15

摘要：

为了提高机组人员处置飞机客舱突发事件应急决策的科学性，基于案例推理法（CBR）理论构建客舱突发事件应急决策模型，制定应急决策流程；利用粗糙集理论计算属性权重，运用结构相似度、属性相似度及全局相似度相结合的算法得到全局最优相似历史案例及应急处置方案。基于该模型设计客舱突发事件应急决策系统，并通过客舱行李架和座椅锂电池起火应急处置演练进行试验验证。研究表明：机组人员使用该模型后应急处置效率分别提升了22.28%和18.96%，验证了案例推理模型的科学性和有效性。

关键词: 客舱突发事件, 应急决策, 案例推理法, 粗糙集理论, 案例表示

Abstract: In order to improve the scientific nature of crew's emergency decision when dealing with cabin emergencies, cabin emergency decision model and emergency decision process based on CBR (Case-based Reasoning) theory is proposed in this paper. Attribute weight is obtained by rough set theory, and an algorithm which combine structure similarity, attribute similarity and global similarity is adapt to receive the global optimal similarity case and its emergency response plan. The cabin emergency response system is designed based on this model, and a target case is analyzed by using this model, and an experimental validation of the emergency response to lithium battery fires in passenger cabin luggage racks and seats is conducted. The study shows that, after the use of the model, the efficiency of emergency response increases by 22.28% and 18.96% respectively, which can verify the scientific and efficacy of the model.

Key words: cabin emergency;emergency decision-making, case-based reasoning, rough set theory, case representation