关键词: 气态氢储运风险, 影响因素, Apriori, DEMATEL, AISM, MICMAC

Abstract: To study the risks and influencing factors in the process of gaseous hydrogen storage and transportation, referring to the typical cases of gaseous hydrogen storage and transportation in 2000-2024 from the four major hydrogen accident databases such as HAID and H2Tools, 24 key risk influencing factors were screened out from the five links of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation, hydrogen refueling and hydrogen use. The Apriori algorithm was used to mine the association rules, DEMATEL was used to calculated the centrality and causality of each factor and drew a scatter plot of the causality of the influencing factors, revealing the key causal factors and core outcome factors of the risk in the process of gaseous hydrogen storage and transportation; Combined with the AISM adversarial topological hierarchy, the three-layer and nine-level risk transmission paths of the gaseous hydrogen storage and transportation process are revealed, and four groups of strongly correlated loops are found; The MICMAC driver-dependency matrix is constructed to verify the validity of the AISM topology hierarchy results. Results showed that the influencing factors of hydrogen production have strong driving characteristics, which not only directly affect the subsequent links, but also indirectly affect the downstream risk factors through the complex causal chain; The influencing factors of hydrogen refueling and hydrogen consumption are more present in the fruiting layer and are more likely to be affected by upstream links; The hydrogen storage and hydrogen transportation links not only carry the risk transmission from the upstream, but also drive the risks of the downstream link, which should be paid great attention to.

Key words: hydrogen storage and transportation risks, influencing factors, Apriori, DEMATEL, AISM, MICMAC