Abstract: A novel method of uncertainty risk prediction and probability variable evaluation for dust explosion based on Monte Carlo simulation was established to study the risk of dust explosion and its reduction with suppression. The dynamic pressure changes of aluminum dust explosion and the followed uncertainty risk in the T-branch pipeline were calculated and analyzed, whose results show that the explosion overpressure of the aluminium dust with a median particle size of 35 μm at a mass concentration of 500 g/m3 changes in the shape of Gamma distribution with the average value of 0.10 MPa. Taking the probability interval of more than 50% as an example, the simulated results of Monte Carlo show that the risk of pipeline structure damage caused by explosion overpressure is 85.41%. However, with 7.5% ammonium dihydrogen phosphate, the damage risk of overpressure on pipeline structure is reduced to 45%. 

Key words: aluminum dust, explosion, explosion overpressure, Monte Carlo simulation, probability variable, risk analysis