Abstract: In order to facilitate the normalization of scenario representation and the accuracy of evolution path analysis of major disasters, according to the characteristics of disaster distribution with spatial clustering and temporal clustering, this paper proposes a scenario analysis method based on scenario elements. On the basis of defining the concepts of scenario and scenario element, the knowledge element theory is used to identify the feature elements and represent the scenario element. By analyzing the relationship between the characteristic elements and the path relationship of the evolution of scenario elements, construct the chain relationship map of the evolution of major disasters. Taking the Dalian“7·16” oil depot fire as an example, the feasibility of the method is verified.

Key words: firefighting, major disasters, scenario element, evolution path, emergency management