Abstract: In order to solve the problem that it is difficult to predict the scenario evolution process of oil storage tank fire accident, the complex network theory is used to study the scenario evolution process of oil storage tank fire accident. Firstly, 72 oil storage tank fire cases are analyzed, 13 typical scenarios are identified as nodes, and the accident chain network is constructed according to the logical relationship of scenario development. Then, the risk assessment model of fire accident chain based on complex network is established to evaluate the importance of nodes and the risk degree of connecting edges between nodes. Finally, the explosion accident of Gulei PX project in Zhangzhou, Fujian Province was taken as an example to verify the feasibility and reliability of the proposed method. The research shows that the risk analysis model can reveal the key nodes and correlation in the oil storage tank fire accident chain, analyze the development direction of the accident chain in time, and improve the ability of emergency rescue teams to deal with oil storage tank fire accidents.

Key words: oil storage tanks, scenario evolution, complex network, accident chain, risk analysis