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主管:中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办:应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU

Table of Content

    15 May 2026, Volume 45 Issue 5 Previous Issue   

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    Research on causal factors of gas leakage accidents based on LDA-DEMATEL-ISM
    Chen Wentao, Gao Xing, Sun Chao, Wang Wenhe, Yang Zhiquan, Liu Chaolin
    2026, 45 (5):  1-8. 
    Abstract ( 101 )  
    To explore the intrinsic relationships among the contributing factors of gas leakage accidents and identify the key and root causes, this study collected 148 gas leakage accident investigation reports as textual data. The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model was applied for topic mining, and 18 accident causative factors were identified and summarized through literature analysis. An integrated approach combining the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) was adopted to plot cause-and-result diagrams of the factors and construct a multi-level hierarchical structure model. This allowed for determining the causal attributes of each factor and their roles within the system, as well as clarifying the hierarchical relationships and transmission paths among the factors. The results show that the causal factors of gas leakage accidents exhibit a five-level hierarchical structure. Among them, inadequate safety supervision and insufficient implementation of safety education and training are identified as root causes, while violations of operating procedures and failures of auxiliary equipment and facilities are the most direct surface-level causes. A total of 11 key causal chains from root causes to surface-level factors were identified, revealing the multi-level transmission paths among the causes of gas leakage accidents and providing clear directions for accident prevention and control.
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    Research on the mechanism of KHCO3 in suppressing two-phase explosion of polypropylene/propylene
    Chen Tingwei, Liu Yong,
    2026, 45 (5):  9-13. 
    Abstract ( 52 )  
    To investigate the inhibition mechanism of KHCO₃ inhibitor on polypropylene/propylene two-phase explosion, the inhibition mechanism was analyzed from both physical and chemical aspects by examining flame propagation characteristics, pyrolysis characteristics and chemical reaction kinetic mechanism, revealing the interruption of the explosion reaction process. The results show that KHCO₃ exhibits an inhibitory effect on polypropylene/propylene two-phase explosions with different concentration ratios. KHCO₃ decomposes under heating and absorbs a large amount of heat, and the carbonate produced by decomposition adheres to the surface of PP dust, raising the melting point of PP dust from 160 ℃ to 222 ℃. Meanwhile, the maximum consumption rate of ·H by the reaction KOH + H ⇌┬ K + H₂O reaches the highest value of -0.007 45 mol/(cm³·s). The maximum consumption rate of ·OH by the reaction KOH + OH ⇌┬ KO + H₂O reaches the highest value of -0.011 34 mol/(cm³·s). At high temperatures, KHCO₃ generates gaseous K and KOH at the flame front, which continuously scavenge ·H and ·OH through the K ⇌┬ KOH cycle and convert them into H₂O, thereby achieving explosion suppression.
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    Study on the changing law of the traces of shear tools under the conditions of gas explosion
    Tang Peng, Liu Ling, Ye Yujian
    2026, 45 (5):  14-19. 
    Abstract ( 77 )  
    The practice of suspects using gas explosions to conceal tool marks at crime scenes poses challenges for case investigations, yet research on the retention patterns of cutting tool marks in gas explosion environments remains relatively scarce. This study examines gas rubber hoses cut by household scissors. Using an instantaneous high-temperature experimental platform (heating durations of 200, 400, 600, 800, 1 000 ms) and a full-scale gas explosion experimental platform, combined with digital cameras, stereomicroscopes, and energy dispersive spectrometers, we systematically analyzed and compared the morphological and elemental composition changes on the cut surfaces of the rubber hoses. Results indicate that under instantaneous high-temperature conditions with heating durations below 200 ms, shearing tool marks remain identifiable via stereomicroscopy. When heating exceeds 400 ms, marks become unrecognizable due to severe carbonization and ablation. Comparisons between full-scale explosions and 200 ms instantaneous high-temperature conditions revealed that both scenarios yielded identifiable surface shearing tool marks morphologically. Elemental content differences primarily resulted from varying oxidation environments and thermal intensity. This study provides theoretical foundations and technical support for identifying and analyzing shearing tool marks in gas explosion cases.
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    Comparative study and analysis on the determination standards of combustible gas explosion index at home and abroad
    Luan Tingting, Huang Jun, Yang Guoliang, Ren Changxing
    2026, 45 (5):  20-25. 
    Abstract ( 37 )  
    The determination standards of explosion index at home and abroad are compared and analyzed from the aspects of determination principle, test device, test concentration, result expression and safety requirements. The requirements of test devices in domestic and foreign standards are the key parts of comparative analysis. It is found that there are significant differences in the flexibility, test principle, result expression and safety requirements of test devices between domestic and foreign standards. The domestic standard needs to be improved in terms of the flexibility of the test device, and it is necessary to refer to the relevant research and standards to formulate more strict and clear regulations. The domestic standard should consider turning to absolute pressure to improve the accuracy and reliability of the test.
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    Impact of safety vent orientation on fire characteristics in lithium-ion battery e-bikes
    Lin Xiaoye, Li Kailing, Hou Yanan, Wang Yongyi
    2026, 45 (5):  26-33. 
    Abstract ( 50 )  
    This study addresses the critical urban safety issue of lithium-ion battery fires in electric bicycles by analyzing the influence of safety vent orientation on fire development through full-scale burning tests. Results show that e-bike fires generally exhibit three distinct stages in both tests: initial combustion, jet fire followed by stable combustion, and decay leading to extinction. The number of jet fire incidents is closely related to the number of battery cells, whereas the scale of jet flames shows no significant correlation with their sequence of occurrence. When the safety vent is oriented vertically (Test A), the flame temperature directly above it is significantly increased, with an average peak temperature of 181.8 ℃, approximately 16% higher than that observed in the horizontal orientation (Test B). Moreover, the entire e-bike in Test A is fully burned in a "rear-first, then front" pattern, where the front section is directly ignited by a jet flame. In contrast, Test B produces a horizontal jet flame with a maximum projection distance of 2.5 m, but the fire remains confined to the rear section. Additionally, the total heat release rate in Test A is about 1.71 times that of Test B. The study confirms that safety vent orientation significantly influences both fire spread behavior and combustion intensity in lithium-ion battery e-bike fires.
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    The risk of damage to adjacent cables under the condition of arc ignition of the outer sheath of 110 kV flame retardant cable
    Pu Ziheng, Guo Xun, Ren Zhigang, Wang Shuai, Guo Wei
    2026, 45 (5):  34-44. 
    Abstract ( 36 )  
    This paper explores the damage risk of adjacent cables when arc ignition occurs in the outer sheath of high voltage cables. Firstly, a high-voltage cable arc ignition test platform was built, the 110 kV flame retardant cable was used as the test material. The typical arc fault conditions were selected to carry out the arc ignition test, and the ignition characteristics of the cable outer sheath were analyzed. Then, the equivalent fire source simulation model was established according to the ignition test data, and the temperature rise characteristics of the sheath combustion were verified. Finally, taking a typical cable tunnel as an example, the temperature distribution simulation and the risk assessment of adjacent cable damage were carried out. The results show that the maximum flame temperature under 4~10 A typical arc condition is 310~725 ℃, and the equivalent fire source power is about 128~275 W. When the fault arc current is less than 8 A, there is no risk of damage to the cables in each layer of the tunnel; when the arc current is 8 A and above, the surface temperature of the upper laying cable on the same side of the fault cable exceeds the safety limit 30 s after the arc fault occurs, and there is a risk of damage.
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    Research on the effectiveness of smoke control system in tall space of a large TOD railway project
    Hou Chunyuan, Zhu Guoqing, Wang Yu, Geng Weichao
    2026, 45 (5):  45-51. 
    Abstract ( 35 )  
    In order to study the smoke control effect of natural smoke exhaust in the large space of railway station buildings, taking the waiting hall of a large TOD railway station building as an example, numerical simulation and hot smoke tests were conducted to analyze the smoke spread law, spatial temperature field, visibility and volume fraction of carbon monoxide in the waiting hall under different fire scales. The results show that the waiting hall has a large space and strong smoke storage capacity. Under the simulated fire sources of 10 MW and 8 MW, the smoke in the waiting hall can be smoothly discharged outdoors through the natural smoke exhaust windows, and the fire smoke mainly accumulates at the top of the waiting hall without significant settlement. The time required for personnel evacuation is 432 s, which is less than the 1 200 s of the fire danger approaching time, and personnel can evacuate safely. Under the test fire source of 1.5 MW, the smoke can smoothly rise to the top of the waiting hall and trigger the opening of all natural smoke exhaust windows. Due to the large space of the waiting hall, the smoke filling time is relatively long, and it takes 14 min for all natural smoke exhaust windows to open in linkage. The temperature rise in the waiting hall space is inversely proportional to the height, and the temperature rise of the smoke at different heights is all above 15 ℃, and no smoke stratification phenomenon occurs. The smoke control system design of this waiting hall is reasonable and effective, and the research results can provide theoretical basis and data support for the smoke exhaust design of similar large space buildings.
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    Smoke spread characteristics and longitudinal ventilation effects in tunnel fires under open cross-passage conditions
    Wang Wantong, Cui Kunpeng, Wang Jian, Yang Riliang, Liu Ning
    2026, 45 (5):  52-58. 
    Abstract ( 50 )  
    In tunnel fires, cross passages may become pathways for smoke spread after the evacuation function is completed, and subsequent longitudinal ventilation can also affect smoke propagation within the tunnel. Based on the Xuefengshan tunnel fire scenario, this study established an FDS numerical model. A combined fire source consisting of a truck (15 MW) and a car (5 MW) was set using time-sequential ignition to simulate the initial fire conditions and ventilation conditions during the fire decay stage. The influence of parameters such as gas velocity, temperature, and visibility on fire rescue operations was analyzed under these two scenarios. The results indicate that the temperature at the eighth vehicle cross passage near the fire source is higher than that at other cross passages, while the seventeenth pedestrian cross passage on the downwind side of the fire source exhibits the lowest visibility, dropping to 5.83 m at 1 926 s. During the fire decay stage, longitudinal ventilation does not cause significant fluctuations in the fire source but does lead to weakened stratification on the downwind side, resulting in rapid mixing of smoke with air. Overall, during the initial fire stage and the subsequent ventilation stage, the non-accident tunnel and the cross passages on the upwind side of the fire source offer a relatively safe environment for fire rescue operations.
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    Study on the effectiveness of compressed air foam fire extinguishing in underground substations and system design parameters
    Zhu Junyu, Zhang Changyang, Kong Weiguang, Zhao Jinlong
    2026, 45 (5):  59-64. 
    Abstract ( 41 )  
    High-pressure fine water mist systems are commonly used in underground substations. Compressed Air Foam System (CAFS), as a measure to enhance firefighting capabilities, is gradually being applied in the fire suppression process of substations. To evaluate CAFS performance in underground substations, this study established a full-scale 110 kV underground substation fire suppression test platform. By adjusting parameters such as flow rate, foam type, and combustion area, the extinguishing effectiveness of CAFS was investigated. Results indicate that the CAFS extinguishing process comprises three distinct phases: initiation, sustained suppression, and flame extinction. Increasing the foam mixture supply intensity significantly accelerates flame expansion and shortens extinguishing time. When supply intensity rose from 13.3 L/(min·m²) to 26.7 L/(min·m²), extinguishing time decreased from 22 s to 7 s. Foam liquid type had minimal impact on extinguishing effectiveness, and the presence of spreading fires had little effect on extinguishing duration. Simultaneously, wall surface cooling rates were influenced by flow rate. Higher supply intensities resulted in significantly lower wall temperatures upon successful extinguishment. Oxygen concentration increased after CAFS activation. As supply intensity increased, oxygen concentration at the moment of successful extinguishment first rose then fell, indicating no direct correlation between the extinguishing process and oxygen concentration changes. Comprehensive analysis suggests selecting a CAFS supply intensity between 17.8~22.2 L/(min·m²) with 3% AFFF foam type.
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    Design research on dry fire standpipe protection systems for super high-rise buildings
    Li Meiling, Xie Ruiyun, Zhang Wei, Li Mengxi, Huang Liqing, Zhang Weibin
    2026, 45 (5):  65-71. 
    Abstract ( 49 )  
    Traditional fire water supply systems in super high-rise buildings face several challenges, including high hydrostatic pressure, poor water supply timeliness, insufficient system reliability, and limited tactical flexibility. The dry fire standpipe system offers advantages such as low risk, high flexibility, and ease of maintenance, serving as an effective and important tactical supplement and redundancy solution. This paper analyzes the working principle and core advantages of the dry fire standpipe system, characterized by "empty pipe in normal times, water supply in disasters", and demonstrates its technical feasibility by combining domestic fire truck water supply capabilities with field test data. The study focuses on the feasibility and technical pathways for converting temporary fire hydrant standpipes or concrete pump pipes from the construction phase into permanent dry fire standpipe facilities, and proposes specific design recommendations for dry fire standpipe systems in super high-rise buildings. The analysis shows that, when combined with the immediate response mechanism of building mini-fire stations and supported by rapid water supply from fire trucks, the system can achieve effective water supply within 5 minutes after fire confirmation, meeting the "golden time requirements for initial fire control" in super high-rise buildings. This study aims to provide new ideas and technical references for improving the efficiency of firefighting in super high-rise buildings.
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    Research on thermal transfer performance of airtight chemical protective clothing under composite air gap factors
    Yao Yueying, Liu Xiaoyong, Li Yayun, Wang Xuefan, Zhang Zhenyu
    2026, 45 (5):  72-78. 
    Abstract ( 31 )  
    This study focuses on addressing thermal comfort challenges associated with the hermetic construction of chemical protective clothing. This study employed a thermal manikin experimental platform to investigate the relationship between air gap thickness and manikin surface temperature under multifactorial conditions by systematically measuring temperature variations across different air gap thicknesses, ambient temperatures, and activity intensities, thereby analyzing the impact of air gap thickness on microclimate heat transfer. The results demonstrate that when the air gap thickness reduced from 55 mm to 10 mm, the temperature rise amplitude of the manikin surface increased, indicating that increasing the air gap thickness significantly reduces the manikin's surface temperature. The manikin's surface temperature increased by 0.89 ℃ at 65 W/m² and 1.54 ℃ at 110 W/m² thermal loads, revealing a positive correlation between temperature rise amplitude and activity intensity. The temperature changes of the manikin corresponding to ambient temperatures of 32, 25, 15, 10 ℃ are 1.59, 1.54, 0.42, 0.12 ℃, respectively. The decrease in the thickness of the air layer results in a significant increase in the temperature rise of the manikin as the ambient temperature increases.
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    Design and performance study on powered air-purifying respirator for forest fire fighting
    Zhou Kai, Zhang Kun, Hao Shensi, Jing Kai
    2026, 45 (5):  79-86. 
    Abstract ( 34 )  
    Aiming at the practical problems existing in individual respiratory protection equipment for firefighters during forest fire extinguishing and rescue operations, such as high breathing resistance, limited service duration and insufficient comfort, this study developed a new type of air-supply respiratory protection equipment for firefighters in forest fire fighting based on the structural principle of powered air-purifying respirators. By analyzing the special respiratory protection requirements for forest fire suppression, combined with relevant studies on the actual carrying mode, air supply system and adaptive functions of respirators, the respiratory protection equipment with dual-canister smoke filtration and dual-hose air supply structure was developed by comprehensively adopting CFD simulation, theoretical calculation and experimental testing, and integrating devices including ambient air bypass and fire-resistant exhalation valve. The results show that the dual-hose air supply structure equipped with dual-canister smoke filtration is superior to the single-hose air supply structure with single-canister smoke filtration in performance indicators such as static pressure, flow velocity, dynamic pressure and breathing resistance. Especially in the air hose section, the average flow velocity and dynamic pressure of the dual-hose structure are reduced by 63.1% and 86.4% respectively compared with the single-hose mode, and the service duration is increased by 46.1%.
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    Image fire detection algorithms evaluation methods based on image complexity
    Li Pu, Zhang Miao
    2026, 45 (5):  87-93. 
    Abstract ( 37 )  
    The "image complexity" is proposed to measure the difficulty for the algorithm to detect fire in an image. The "human response time" is obtained through the program test method, which could define the true value of the complexity of the image in the data set. Then, convolutional neural network is used to develop an evaluator that can automatically predict the comprehensive complexity of the whole image. Through the consistency analysis, the comprehensive complexity measure of the whole image generated by the Inception ResNet-v2 evaluator is the most effective measure. Furthermore, a performance evaluation method based on image complexity is proposed. This method can evaluate the detection level that the algorithm can achieve under different "image complexity" situations more accurately, providing more valuable reference for the development and optimization of fire detection algorithms.
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    Research on the evaluation and countermeasures of emergency communication support capability of fire and rescue teams
    Zhang Xiaoming, Li Yu, Wang Qilei, Zhang Yinghua
    2026, 45 (5):  94-100. 
    Abstract ( 53 )  
    The cloud model theory is introduced to establish an evaluation index system for emergency rescue communication support capability, optimizing the weights of each indicator and the rating set. An evaluation model for emergency rescue communication support capability is developed, and a case study of a fire and emergency rescue brigade is conducted to assess its communication support capability. This validates the rationality of the proposed cloud model and reduces the fuzziness and uncertainty of traditional evaluation methods. Additionally, based on the assessment results, corresponding strategies are proposed to enhance foundational support capabilities, team-building support capabilities, equipment and system support capabilities, and management mechanism support capabilities.
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    Overview and comparative of occupational health and safety standards for firefighters at home and abroad
    Li Linfeng, Xu Xiaoyan, Guo Haidong, Liu Siyong, Yang Xu, Zhu Yaoyao, He Jin
    2026, 45 (5):  101-106. 
    Abstract ( 36 )  
    With the significant expansion of fire service functions and tasks, new occupational hazard factors continue to emerge, leading to a further increase in occupational health risks for fire and rescue personnel. The construction of a systematic standard system for occupational health and safety of fire and rescue personnel serves as the foundation and support for conducting occupational health management and protection work. This paper systematically sorts out the development status of occupational health and safety standards for fire and rescue personnel in different countries, regions and international standardization organizations, summarizes the management characteristics and system structures of these standards across various countries, and conducts a comparative analysis of the domestic and foreign standard frameworks. The advantages and deficiencies of China's current standard construction are concluded, aiming to provide references for further constructing and improving a standard system for occupational health and safety of fire and rescue personnel that integrates Chinese characteristics with advanced international concepts in the future.
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    Optimization study of county fire station layout based on accessibility
    Zhao Wentao, Liu Dingli, Yang Jing, Yuan Diping
    2026, 45 (5):  107-115. 
    Abstract ( 33 )  
    Previous studies on the layout of fire stations predominantly focuses on urban areas, with limited attention given to counties primarily composed of rural regions. In response to the need for optimizing the layout of fire stations in counties, a comprehensive evaluation method for the accessibility of urban and rural fire rescue is proposed in this paper. Considering the differences in fire risks between urban and rural areas, different standards for accessibility classification are established. Fire rescue demand points are identified by integrating fire data and point of interest data, with urban fire stations and township full-time fire stations serving as supply points for fire rescue. The accessibility of fire rescue in the county is then weighted and comprehensively calculated based on the average ratio of fire direct property losses in urban and rural areas. Taking SD County as an example, 16 040 demand points were collected, and the existing 2 urban fire stations and 13 township full-time fire stations were used as supply points. The travel time for fire rescue was simulated based on real-time road conditions from online maps. A total of 29 evaluation scenarios were set within a full working day, each containing 16 040 samples, amounting to 465 160 samples in total. The results indicate that the cumulative proportion of demand points with accessibility levels Ⅰ and Ⅱ is 50.30%, with several areas experiencing excessively long response times. Analysis reveals that this is due to the lack of township full-time fire stations in these regions. Therefore, a proposal is made to construct 8 township full-time fire stations in these areas as an optimization plan. Upon re-evaluation, the cumulative proportion of demand points with accessibility levels Ⅰ and Ⅱ increased by 10.76% to 61.06% after the implementation of the optimization plan. The comprehensive evaluation method for urban and rural fire rescue accessibility proposed in this study can also be applied to the optimization of fire station layouts in other counties.
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    Exploration and practice of long-term mechanism for grassroots fire safety governance
    Chen Quan
    2026, 45 (5):  116-119. 
    Abstract ( 49 )  
    Fire safety governance is both prioritized and challenged at the grassroots level. Grassroots fire safety governance is a systematic, long-term undertaking and a cornerstone of building a modern fire safety governance system and governance capacity. To further enhance the capacity for resolving fire hazards at their source and foster a collaborative working pattern of mass prevention and co-governance, this paper takes Dongguan city as a practical case study. Centering on three core questions of "who governs, what is governed, and how to govern", it presents how a closed-loop operational workflow for grassroots fire safety, comprising "patrol and detection, tiered response, closed-loop rectification, and enforcement and investigation", can be established under the "Unified Network Management" mechanism. Furthermore, by developing a "Three-in-One" grassroots fire safety informatization support system (namely, one platform for integrated coordination, one code for unified management, and one map for comprehensive oversight), the response speed and operational efficiency of firefighting forces are enhanced, the fire safety governance capabilities of grassroots teams are continuously strengthened, grassroots fire safety work is put on a solid and steady footing, and a comprehensive shift toward a "pre-incident prevention" paradigm is actively explored.
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    Assessment model of the emergency rescue capabilities of fire and rescue personnel
    Chen Xiao, Yang Qishun, Tian Siyu, Wu Peng
    2026, 45 (5):  120-126. 
    Abstract ( 29 )  
    This study employs a qualitative-quantitative mixed-methods design. First, grounded theory is applied to conduct three-level coding of interview transcripts and text data to construct an initial model of emergency rescue capabilities, including five dimensions: political literacy, psychological capital, foundational support, professional execution, and environmental adaptation. Next, a cluster sampling method is utilized to survey fire and rescue personnel nationwide, with exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to validate the model. Finally, recommendations for enhancing competencies are proposed. The findings reveal that: The results of EFA demonstrate excellent reliability and validity indicators, and CFA results confirm the model fits well. The model aligns with the competency onion model, where political literacy forms the core driving layer, foundational support and psychological capital constitute the intermediate moderating layer, and professional execution and environmental adaptation serve as the visible surface layer. This model reveals the "value internalization-capability accumulation-behavior manifestation" transmission mechanism. The model has a task-oriented dynamic collaboration mechanism, achieving functional embedding and scene adaptation among five dimensions.
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    Fire risks and fire prevention strategies for core process flow in LNG receiving terminals
    Zheng Yifeng, Zhang Lin, Chen Zibin
    2026, 45 (5):  127-131. 
    Abstract ( 27 )  
    Based on the key processes of LNG receiving terminals, this paper focuses on the fire safety analysis during process operation. Firstly, the properties of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the current situation of the domestic LNG industry are introduced, followed by an emphasis on the important role of LNG receiving terminals in the energy supply chain. Taking an LNG receiving terminal—the first one independently introduced, constructed and managed in China—as a case study, the potential fire hazards in key process flows such as ship unloading, storage and BOG treatment are discussed, with its Class A hazard level and potential risks including pool fires and jet fires identified. Furthermore, starting from facility design, an "intelligent + integrated" fire prevention system is established, and a management closed loop featuring "responsibility + system" is improved. Corresponding preventive measures are proposed to provide references for the safe operation of LNG receiving terminals.
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    Research on the dual estimation method of fire state-fuel parameters for dynamic prediction of wildfires
    Luo Xiaolong, Wang Zheng, Wu Hao, Ji Jie, Ding Long
    2026, 45 (5):  132-142. 
    Abstract ( 30 )  
    Since the fireline state and input parameters of wildfire spread prediction models inevitably contain errors and uncertainties, there are usually large deviations between wildfire spread predictions and actual spread results. The Kalman filter method based on data assimilation has the advantage of dynamic estimation in reducing model state errors. In this paper, we propose a dual estimation method for fireline position and fuel parameters based on Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network, combined with the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) algorithm. This method utilizes fireline position data from two consecutive observations and employs ETKF and MLP algorithms to estimate fireline position state and fuel parameters respectively under different prediction periods and fuel adjustment factor resolutions, aiming to reduce the uncertainties in both model state and model parameters. We validated the dual estimation method using a 10 000 m2 prescribed burning experiment and historical wildfire cases. The results demonstrate that the dual estimation algorithm can effectively reduce errors in both fireline state and model parameters, with the predicted fireline positions being to colser actual observations compared to single estimation methods. The prediction period significantly influences the performance of the dual estimation method in reducing fire spread model errors. The longer the prediction period, the greater the improvement in fireline position prediction accuracy compared to single estimation methods. In historical wildfire cases, the dual estimation algorithm shows good overall performance in fireline position prediction, validating the predictive capability of our algorithm in practical scenarios.
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    Modeling and analysis of forest fire air-ground coordination emergency rescue process based on SPN
    Guo Xinyao, Li Jiayi, Wang Yuansheng
    2026, 45 (5):  143-148. 
    Abstract ( 29 )  
    To enhance the efficiency of air-ground coordinated emergency rescue in forest fires and identify the critical links in the rescue process, this study draws on the emergency rescue workflows for unconventional emergencies to design a forest fire air-ground coordination rescue process integrating both "aerial firefighting" and "ground firefighting". Taking the 2018 "4·6" forest fire rescue operation in Yiyuan County, Shandong Province as a case study, a simulation analysis of the efficiency and key links of the air-ground coordination rescue system was conducted based on the Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) model. The key issues constraining rescue efficiency are explored, their underlying causes are analyzed, and the interaction mechanisms among critical links in the rescue process are revealed in the study. The results indicate that fire mop-up, bucket operations for fire suppression, and the approval of rescue aircraft requests have high transition utilization rates, making them the key constraints on rescue efficiency. Bucket operations and fire mop-up exhibit greater sensitivity to overall rescue time, while the aircraft request approval process can further enhance the efficiency of these two links. The findings provide decision-making support for emergency management authorities in formulating air-ground coordinated rescue processes for forest fire response.
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